Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$28
Total volume$24k
Liquidity$19k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 0% |
What counts
Ukraine must sign a written document that ends hostilities or sets a clear path to peace by October 31, 2026. The agreement must include both nations and cannot be a temporary ceasefire or limited to specific issues like prisoner exchanges. Readers often mistake the required source of truth for official government statements rather than credible news reporting.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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