UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card)
The market favoured Mike Malott at 54% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$594k
Total volume$612k
Liquidity$41k
Resolved18 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 100% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 54% |
| 18 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 54% |
| 17 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 54% |
What counts
The market resolves to Mike Malott if he is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joaquin Buckley. It resolves to Joaquin Buckley if he wins. If the bout ends in a draw, no contest, cancellation, or postponement past October 31, 2026, it resolves to 50-50. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which is official UFC information, not media reports.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Mike Malott 100%
- Joaquin Buckley 0%
View this market on Polymarket →