Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?
Implied probability 2%−5
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves16 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 16:09 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Oct, 14:26 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 11% |
| 7 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Oct, 10:36 UTC | 11% |
| 7 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 13% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 12% |
| 6 Oct, 10:25 UTC | 10% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Oct, 06:33 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Oct, 04:16 UTC | 13% |
| 5 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 15% |
| 5 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 12% |
| 5 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 12% |
| 5 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 13% |
| 5 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 10% |
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What counts
A new human case of pneumonic plague must be explicitly confirmed by a qualifying source, such as Russian health authorities or the WHO, before 11:59 PM Moscow time on October 15. The confirmation must identify laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis with pulmonary involvement or announce a confirmed pneumonic plague case; suspected or probable cases do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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