Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Implied probability 45%+3
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 07:28 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 42% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the National Party wins between 35 and 39 seats in the 2026 election, while No covers all other seat counts. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the result, using official data from the New Zealand Electoral Commission only if ambiguity arises.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 45%
- No 56%
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