Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$394
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 04:45 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 13:11 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 12:38 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 15:38 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 09:43 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 06:50 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 21:40 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 06:02 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
Apple must hold the third-largest global market capitalization at the exact moment the stock market closes on September 30, 2026. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Apple's current valuation for the final answer, but only the ranking on that specific future date matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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