Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Implied probability 2%−46
24-hour volume$403k
Total volume$1.5M
Liquidity$66k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. It resolves to No if a Democrat or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calls as the final authority, but the market only resolves once all three sources agree on the winner; if they do not agree, it relies on official certification.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%