Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?
Implied probability 67%+3
24-hour volume$423
Total volume$90k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 66% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 61% |
| 23 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 62% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 61% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 61% |
| 23 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 62% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 62% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 62% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 63% |
| 23 Oct, 04:24 UTC | 64% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 62% |
| 22 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 08:01 UTC | 64% |
| 22 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 05:02 UTC | 64% |
| 22 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 64% |
| 22 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 64% |
| 22 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 64% |
| 22 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 63% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the outcome to be Yes, Saudi Arabia's armed forces must launch an air strike or surface-to-surface missile that directly hits Yemen on October 30. Actions by proxies, intercepted munitions, or strikes hitting only Yemeni airspace do not count. Readers often mistake UK fighter jet deployments for qualifying Saudi action, but this market requires direct Saudi execution of the strike.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 67%
- No 33%
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