Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The market favoured Yes at 57% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$29k
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$15k
Resolved3 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 09:48 UTC | 71% |
What counts
The "Yes" outcome occurs if Kimi Antonelli finishes in the top three positions according to the FIA's official Final Classification for the race. The "No" outcome applies if he does not finish within those top three spots based on that same classification.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →