Will Lionel Messi finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
The market favoured No at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$22k
Liquidity$20k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 11% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 05:46 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 06:48 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 11:12 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 10% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lionel Messi is ranked third in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or, and No otherwise. The final ranking must come from France Football or UEFA by November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the ceremony date of October 26 for the resolution deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →