Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
Implied probability 9%+1
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$152k
Liquidity$47k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 08:32 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 03:19 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 13:07 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if both Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement by 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026. This agreement must be officially announced by both governments or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting as a general pause in the conflict.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 92%
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