Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
Why it moved: −3 points at 07:00 UTC, after The Guardian: NZ election 2026 live results: count on as National and Labour battle it out in knife-edge New Zealand poll — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 7 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 9% |
| 6 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the official voter turnout rate falls between 76% and 78%. The No outcome applies if the rate is outside that range or if results are not finalized by October 31, 2027. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself rather than the late-2027 cutoff for unresolved results.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 92%
Trade this market on Polymarket →