Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?
Implied probability 22%+1
24-hour volume$108
Total volume$135k
Liquidity$108k
Resolves1 Apr 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 6 Nov, 10:49 UTC | 22% |
| 6 Nov, 09:23 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 01:38 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Nov, 13:52 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Nov, 13:07 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Nov, 12:59 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" only if both Russia and Ukraine officially agree to a general suspension of direct military fighting that lasts for ten continuous days by March 31, 2027. The agreement must be confirmed by credible reporting or official announcements from both sides, excluding temporary pauses or localized truces.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 79%
Trade this market on Polymarket →