Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
The market favoured Yes at 56% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$21k
Total volume$23k
Liquidity$13k
Resolved8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 22:46 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 62% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 51% |
| 31 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 74% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Kimi Antonelli finishes in the top three of the official Final Classification for the race on November 1, 2026. The result depends solely on the FIA's published classification, which accounts for time penalties and adjustments. Readers often mistake the podium ceremony timing or post-classification disqualifications as determining factors.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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