Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027?
The market favoured No at 86% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$14k
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Jun 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 12% |
| 28 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Oct, 07:22 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 96% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Netherlands appears on the first official participant list announced by the European Broadcasting Union or Eurovision by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if the country is absent from that initial announcement or if no qualifying list is published by the deadline. Readers often mistake later withdrawals for a No outcome, but only the first official announcement counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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