Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 07:36 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 07:05 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 01:24 UTC | 21% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 21% |
| 20 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 21% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
This market resolves to Yes if Israel announces its ground forces have left all Lebanese territory by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The Shebaa Farms area counts as Israeli land and does not count toward the withdrawal requirement. Readers often mistake a planned future withdrawal for an actual one, but only a completed action or announcement of completion counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 79%
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