Will France win on 2026-10-02?
The market favoured Yes at 69% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$1.1M
Total volume$1.1M
Liquidity$813k
Resolved2 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 70% |
What counts
France must win the match scheduled for October 2, 2026, within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time for the outcome to be Yes. The market resolves based on the official final result recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Readers often mistake the linked budget news for the relevant event, but this market depends solely on the specific game played on the stated date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →