Spread: Ravens (-3.5)
The market favoured Cowboys at 53% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$280k
Total volume$395k
Liquidity$264k
Resolved27 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 18:36 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 49% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 49% |
What counts
The Ravens outcome occurs if they win by four points or more. The Cowboys outcome applies if they win, tie, or if the Ravens win by three points or fewer. Readers often mistake the point spread for a simple winner-take-all bet rather than a margin of victory requirement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Ravens 0%
- Cowboys 100%
View this market on Polymarket →