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Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

Implied probability 3%−15
24-hour volume$54k
Total volume$958k
Liquidity$49k
Resolves1 Oct 2026

Why it moved: −4 points at 23:23 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for Sept. 30 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
0%50%100%3%23 Sept, 11:13 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now3%
30 Sept, 10:07 UTC3%
30 Sept, 09:25 UTC3%
30 Sept, 08:57 UTC3%
30 Sept, 07:51 UTC4%
30 Sept, 07:29 UTC4%
30 Sept, 06:55 UTC3%
30 Sept, 06:27 UTC3%
30 Sept, 05:45 UTC3%
30 Sept, 05:24 UTC3%
30 Sept, 04:55 UTC4%
30 Sept, 04:27 UTC5%
30 Sept, 03:49 UTC5%
30 Sept, 03:13 UTC4%
30 Sept, 02:44 UTC4%
30 Sept, 02:28 UTC3%
30 Sept, 01:52 UTC4%
30 Sept, 01:23 UTC5%
29 Sept, 23:23 UTC5%
29 Sept, 20:18 UTC9%
29 Sept, 19:54 UTC9%
29 Sept, 19:10 UTC10%
29 Sept, 18:54 UTC10%
29 Sept, 18:05 UTC10%
29 Sept, 16:07 UTC10%
29 Sept, 15:00 UTC9%
29 Sept, 14:53 UTC9%
29 Sept, 14:15 UTC11%
29 Sept, 13:51 UTC12%
29 Sept, 13:27 UTC14%
29 Sept, 12:26 UTC14%
29 Sept, 11:56 UTC16%
29 Sept, 11:28 UTC17%
29 Sept, 09:59 UTC19%
29 Sept, 09:09 UTC20%
29 Sept, 08:48 UTC21%
29 Sept, 08:13 UTC19%
29 Sept, 07:33 UTC20%
29 Sept, 07:26 UTC18%
29 Sept, 06:31 UTC18%
29 Sept, 06:12 UTC19%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC21%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC21%
28 Sept, 18:54 UTC21%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC31%
28 Sept, 13:30 UTC32%
28 Sept, 13:20 UTC38%
28 Sept, 12:57 UTC34%
28 Sept, 12:11 UTC24%
28 Sept, 11:55 UTC25%
28 Sept, 11:26 UTC38%
28 Sept, 07:26 UTC17%
28 Sept, 05:28 UTC17%
28 Sept, 04:07 UTC17%
28 Sept, 02:41 UTC16%
28 Sept, 01:43 UTC17%
27 Sept, 23:37 UTC17%
27 Sept, 23:09 UTC17%
27 Sept, 22:53 UTC16%
27 Sept, 22:24 UTC16%
27 Sept, 21:37 UTC16%
27 Sept, 21:22 UTC17%
27 Sept, 20:07 UTC16%
27 Sept, 19:41 UTC16%
27 Sept, 19:20 UTC14%
27 Sept, 18:58 UTC13%
27 Sept, 18:27 UTC14%
27 Sept, 17:59 UTC13%
27 Sept, 16:23 UTC15%
27 Sept, 15:59 UTC15%
27 Sept, 14:10 UTC17%
27 Sept, 13:09 UTC17%
27 Sept, 09:09 UTC18%
27 Sept, 07:21 UTC17%
27 Sept, 06:34 UTC17%
27 Sept, 04:31 UTC18%
27 Sept, 04:25 UTC17%
27 Sept, 02:39 UTC18%
27 Sept, 01:24 UTC19%
27 Sept, 00:42 UTC19%
26 Sept, 23:34 UTC20%
26 Sept, 23:09 UTC18%
26 Sept, 21:58 UTC17%
26 Sept, 21:24 UTC18%
26 Sept, 20:36 UTC17%
26 Sept, 20:12 UTC18%
26 Sept, 19:16 UTC19%
26 Sept, 18:34 UTC19%
26 Sept, 18:26 UTC19%
26 Sept, 17:05 UTC18%
26 Sept, 16:48 UTC21%
26 Sept, 15:40 UTC21%
26 Sept, 15:23 UTC22%
26 Sept, 14:37 UTC24%
26 Sept, 12:37 UTC25%
26 Sept, 12:13 UTC26%
26 Sept, 11:20 UTC25%
26 Sept, 09:49 UTC24%
26 Sept, 09:24 UTC23%
26 Sept, 08:02 UTC26%
26 Sept, 06:55 UTC25%
26 Sept, 05:24 UTC24%
26 Sept, 04:36 UTC23%
26 Sept, 02:32 UTC23%
26 Sept, 02:24 UTC23%
26 Sept, 00:08 UTC22%
25 Sept, 23:37 UTC23%
25 Sept, 22:40 UTC22%
25 Sept, 22:22 UTC22%
25 Sept, 21:55 UTC23%
25 Sept, 21:27 UTC24%
25 Sept, 20:18 UTC23%
25 Sept, 19:46 UTC22%
25 Sept, 19:18 UTC25%
25 Sept, 18:29 UTC23%
25 Sept, 17:52 UTC20%
25 Sept, 17:27 UTC25%
25 Sept, 16:51 UTC31%
25 Sept, 15:01 UTC32%
25 Sept, 14:39 UTC32%
25 Sept, 14:25 UTC32%
25 Sept, 13:54 UTC31%
25 Sept, 13:18 UTC32%
25 Sept, 12:57 UTC31%
25 Sept, 12:25 UTC35%
25 Sept, 11:56 UTC37%
25 Sept, 11:29 UTC36%
25 Sept, 10:57 UTC37%
25 Sept, 10:04 UTC38%
25 Sept, 09:50 UTC39%
25 Sept, 09:24 UTC40%
25 Sept, 08:59 UTC44%
25 Sept, 08:13 UTC34%
25 Sept, 07:49 UTC33%
25 Sept, 07:21 UTC34%
25 Sept, 06:10 UTC34%
25 Sept, 05:43 UTC36%
25 Sept, 05:10 UTC35%
25 Sept, 04:49 UTC34%
25 Sept, 04:28 UTC37%
25 Sept, 03:50 UTC37%
25 Sept, 03:24 UTC36%
25 Sept, 02:59 UTC35%
25 Sept, 02:26 UTC35%
25 Sept, 00:59 UTC36%
24 Sept, 23:46 UTC36%
24 Sept, 23:21 UTC35%
24 Sept, 22:53 UTC37%
24 Sept, 22:24 UTC35%
24 Sept, 21:53 UTC34%
24 Sept, 21:25 UTC35%
24 Sept, 20:52 UTC35%
24 Sept, 20:24 UTC36%
24 Sept, 19:56 UTC36%
24 Sept, 19:24 UTC38%
24 Sept, 18:49 UTC41%
24 Sept, 18:24 UTC43%
24 Sept, 17:55 UTC46%
24 Sept, 17:27 UTC46%
24 Sept, 16:54 UTC46%
24 Sept, 15:59 UTC45%
24 Sept, 15:18 UTC47%
24 Sept, 14:44 UTC47%
24 Sept, 14:28 UTC46%
24 Sept, 13:17 UTC44%
24 Sept, 12:55 UTC44%
24 Sept, 12:23 UTC45%
24 Sept, 11:48 UTC48%
24 Sept, 11:26 UTC49%
24 Sept, 10:55 UTC48%
24 Sept, 10:28 UTC44%
24 Sept, 09:49 UTC41%
24 Sept, 09:29 UTC41%
24 Sept, 08:16 UTC42%
24 Sept, 07:31 UTC41%
24 Sept, 07:12 UTC42%
24 Sept, 06:09 UTC41%
24 Sept, 05:34 UTC41%
24 Sept, 05:28 UTC42%
24 Sept, 04:36 UTC42%
24 Sept, 04:23 UTC43%
24 Sept, 03:52 UTC46%
24 Sept, 03:13 UTC46%
24 Sept, 02:44 UTC46%
24 Sept, 02:05 UTC48%
24 Sept, 01:14 UTC46%
24 Sept, 00:55 UTC46%
23 Sept, 23:27 UTC47%
23 Sept, 22:48 UTC47%
23 Sept, 22:27 UTC49%
23 Sept, 21:50 UTC49%
23 Sept, 21:02 UTC50%
23 Sept, 20:34 UTC51%
23 Sept, 20:27 UTC52%
23 Sept, 19:54 UTC52%
23 Sept, 19:07 UTC54%
23 Sept, 18:54 UTC54%
23 Sept, 17:59 UTC54%
23 Sept, 17:25 UTC50%
23 Sept, 15:54 UTC50%
23 Sept, 15:24 UTC50%
23 Sept, 14:54 UTC53%
23 Sept, 14:23 UTC54%
23 Sept, 13:38 UTC56%
23 Sept, 13:28 UTC59%
23 Sept, 11:51 UTC57%
23 Sept, 11:13 UTC58%

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What counts

The market resolves to "Yes" if the Saudi government officially announces that the East-West oil pipeline is currently operational or no longer shut down before September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must state that the pipeline is presently operating, even at reduced capacity, and cannot rely on third-party claims or future plans.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 3%
  • No 97%

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