Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?
Implied probability 100%+3
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$65k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 100% |
| 30 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 05:14 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 18:21 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 92% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 92% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Oct, 11:05 UTC | 94% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 08:26 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 94% |
| 29 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 03:14 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 95% |
| 28 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 95% |
| 28 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 95% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 87% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 88% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 83% |
| 28 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 37% |
| 28 Oct, 13:41 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 38% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 46% |
| 28 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 07:22 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 02:37 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 53% |
| 26 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 53% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 08:51 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 47% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
For the Yes outcome, Microsoft must hold the third-largest market capitalization among all global companies at the market close on October 31, 2026. For the No outcome, any other company holds that position at that specific time. Readers often mistake the linked story about Nscale and Anthropic as relevant to the ranking, but only Microsoft's actual market cap relative to others matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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