Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Implied probability 13%+1
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$152k
Liquidity$164k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 07:33 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 23:00 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 00:22 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 13% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election, while No applies to any other result. The market resolves only when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or by official certification if they do not agree. Readers often mistake the linked story about Senate nominee Hinson as relevant to this specific governor race.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 88%
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