Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
Implied probability 6%−1
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Oct, 04:38 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 07:37 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 04:13 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 13:42 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 08:20 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 07:40 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 12% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the Agent Arena Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. The outcome is Yes if OpenAI owns the model ranked first among those not marked “AutoEval” at that time. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the month rather than the specific check time, or they overlook that AutoEval models are excluded from the ranking.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%
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