Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?
The market favoured No at 58% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$27k
Total volume$27k
Liquidity$42k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 16:15 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 44% |
| 31 Oct, 01:24 UTC | 42% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the score is tied after 45 minutes of regular time plus stoppage time. The No outcome applies if one team leads at that point or if the match ends in a draw but not at halftime. Readers often mistake the final full-time result for the deciding factor, but only the halftime score matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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