Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$864
Total volume$27k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on which Chinese company owns the AI model with the highest rank on the Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day or ignore the requirement that the source must be online and free of AutoEval models.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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