Croatia vs. England: O/U 2.5
The market favoured Over at 59% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$529k
Total volume$537k
Liquidity$229k
Resolved3 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 3 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 100% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 57% |
What counts
The "Over" outcome occurs if Croatia and England score a combined total of 3 or more goals during the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The "Under" outcome applies if their combined goal count is less than 3 within that same timeframe. Readers often mistakenly include extra time, penalty shootouts, or any goals scored after the official match concludes.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Over 100%
- Under 0%
View this market on Polymarket →