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Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?

Implied probability 77%+18
24-hour volume$18k
Total volume$51k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: +13 points at 19:25 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Yemeni gov’t forces, Houthis trade blame for deadly strikes on Taiz market — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?
0%50%100%77%31 Oct, 07:18 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now77%
7 Nov, 06:53 UTC77%
7 Nov, 05:50 UTC75%
7 Nov, 05:23 UTC74%
7 Nov, 04:47 UTC70%
7 Nov, 04:26 UTC73%
7 Nov, 03:52 UTC72%
7 Nov, 02:53 UTC70%
7 Nov, 02:24 UTC68%
7 Nov, 01:55 UTC70%
7 Nov, 01:27 UTC70%
7 Nov, 00:59 UTC71%
7 Nov, 00:23 UTC71%
6 Nov, 23:40 UTC69%
6 Nov, 23:26 UTC64%
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC61%
6 Nov, 22:21 UTC60%
6 Nov, 21:59 UTC60%
6 Nov, 21:16 UTC63%
6 Nov, 20:53 UTC71%
6 Nov, 20:17 UTC77%
6 Nov, 19:47 UTC84%
6 Nov, 19:25 UTC81%
6 Nov, 18:56 UTC68%
6 Nov, 18:27 UTC67%
6 Nov, 17:57 UTC66%
6 Nov, 17:27 UTC69%
6 Nov, 16:57 UTC69%
6 Nov, 16:20 UTC71%
6 Nov, 15:21 UTC71%
6 Nov, 14:33 UTC70%
6 Nov, 14:26 UTC71%
6 Nov, 13:49 UTC65%
6 Nov, 13:27 UTC63%
6 Nov, 12:58 UTC64%
6 Nov, 12:15 UTC64%
6 Nov, 11:52 UTC64%
6 Nov, 11:29 UTC64%
6 Nov, 10:49 UTC60%
6 Nov, 10:27 UTC67%
6 Nov, 09:58 UTC73%
6 Nov, 09:23 UTC73%
6 Nov, 08:34 UTC67%
6 Nov, 08:27 UTC62%
6 Nov, 07:59 UTC60%
6 Nov, 07:24 UTC59%
6 Nov, 06:49 UTC59%
6 Nov, 06:00 UTC59%
6 Nov, 05:25 UTC58%
6 Nov, 04:56 UTC59%
6 Nov, 04:27 UTC59%
6 Nov, 03:58 UTC59%
6 Nov, 03:23 UTC58%
6 Nov, 02:44 UTC58%
6 Nov, 02:29 UTC58%
6 Nov, 01:52 UTC58%
6 Nov, 00:55 UTC55%
6 Nov, 00:27 UTC55%
5 Nov, 23:44 UTC63%
5 Nov, 23:29 UTC63%
5 Nov, 22:54 UTC70%
5 Nov, 22:04 UTC71%
5 Nov, 21:56 UTC61%
5 Nov, 21:26 UTC59%
5 Nov, 20:56 UTC49%
5 Nov, 20:27 UTC56%
5 Nov, 19:57 UTC61%
5 Nov, 19:29 UTC59%
5 Nov, 18:50 UTC58%
5 Nov, 18:20 UTC51%
5 Nov, 17:58 UTC40%
5 Nov, 17:28 UTC36%
5 Nov, 16:21 UTC30%
5 Nov, 13:52 UTC32%
5 Nov, 11:19 UTC32%
5 Nov, 00:16 UTC31%
4 Nov, 19:57 UTC32%
4 Nov, 17:42 UTC30%
4 Nov, 15:28 UTC31%
4 Nov, 14:01 UTC32%
4 Nov, 13:46 UTC35%
4 Nov, 09:57 UTC33%
4 Nov, 09:28 UTC34%
4 Nov, 07:56 UTC35%
4 Nov, 07:20 UTC35%
4 Nov, 06:43 UTC37%
4 Nov, 06:28 UTC32%
4 Nov, 05:53 UTC31%
4 Nov, 05:09 UTC31%
4 Nov, 04:47 UTC35%
4 Nov, 04:25 UTC35%
4 Nov, 03:55 UTC35%
4 Nov, 03:26 UTC33%
4 Nov, 02:41 UTC35%
4 Nov, 02:19 UTC35%
4 Nov, 01:49 UTC34%
4 Nov, 01:20 UTC34%
3 Nov, 23:17 UTC31%
3 Nov, 21:34 UTC29%
3 Nov, 21:26 UTC26%
3 Nov, 20:56 UTC23%
3 Nov, 20:27 UTC20%
3 Nov, 19:50 UTC16%
3 Nov, 19:14 UTC20%
3 Nov, 18:29 UTC20%
3 Nov, 17:26 UTC20%
3 Nov, 16:55 UTC21%
3 Nov, 15:14 UTC20%
3 Nov, 14:46 UTC21%
3 Nov, 13:48 UTC20%
3 Nov, 13:04 UTC21%
3 Nov, 06:37 UTC21%
3 Nov, 06:15 UTC21%
3 Nov, 05:12 UTC21%
3 Nov, 04:57 UTC22%
3 Nov, 02:51 UTC23%
3 Nov, 01:39 UTC22%
3 Nov, 01:02 UTC26%
2 Nov, 23:23 UTC25%
2 Nov, 18:19 UTC19%
2 Nov, 15:42 UTC19%
2 Nov, 14:19 UTC19%
1 Nov, 11:55 UTC19%
1 Nov, 06:57 UTC20%
1 Nov, 01:17 UTC20%
31 Oct, 21:17 UTC20%
31 Oct, 20:14 UTC20%
31 Oct, 19:24 UTC21%
31 Oct, 18:04 UTC21%
31 Oct, 16:51 UTC22%
31 Oct, 15:52 UTC22%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC21%
31 Oct, 14:24 UTC22%
31 Oct, 13:31 UTC22%
31 Oct, 12:25 UTC21%
31 Oct, 11:57 UTC22%
31 Oct, 10:45 UTC22%
31 Oct, 10:13 UTC23%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC21%
31 Oct, 08:07 UTC21%
31 Oct, 07:53 UTC21%
31 Oct, 07:18 UTC21%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces deliberately operate within Saudi Arabia by 11:59 PM ET on December 31. Bombardment, naval presence, or diplomatic visits do not count as entry. Readers often mistake threats or claims of entry for actual physical presence.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 77%
  • No 24%

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