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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Resolved: Yes 7d ago

The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$57k
Total volume$989k
Liquidity$63k
Resolved31 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
0%50%100%100%26 Oct, 14:03 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
31 Oct, 18:55 UTC100%
31 Oct, 15:00 UTC99%
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26 Oct, 14:03 UTC86%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Google owns the model with the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if any other company holds that top spot at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution source, but only data from the specified arena.ai page counts, not general industry reports or other benchmarks.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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