Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?
Implied probability 3%−1
24-hour volume$290
Total volume$38k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 15:50 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 13:33 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 12:18 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 10:57 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 08:26 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 07:49 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 00:20 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 23:14 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 22:45 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 22:07 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 20:10 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 18:09 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 17:02 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 13:17 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 10:35 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 05:47 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 04:56 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 03:52 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 01:58 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 00:55 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 00:16 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 22:55 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 22:27 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 19:14 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 15:37 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 13:56 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 08:53 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 06:56 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 06:28 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 19:42 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 11:00 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 08:14 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 07:09 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 06:45 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 06:08 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 05:17 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 17:30 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 11:44 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 10:58 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 09:46 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Sept, 05:09 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 18:32 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Sept, 15:07 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Sept, 11:17 UTC | 6% |
| 19 Sept, 12:07 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 5% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel launches an air or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits Greater Beirut by 11:59 PM IDT on September 30. It resolves to No if no such strike occurs, including cases where munitions are intercepted before impact or only ground forces are involved.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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