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Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability 28%+14
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$39k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: +9 points at 16:24 UTC, after SI Feed: 2026 Ballon d’Or: Who Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Other Stars Are Backing to Win — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0%50%100%28%20 Oct, 13:37 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now28%
26 Oct, 16:31 UTC28%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC28%
26 Oct, 15:54 UTC20%
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20 Oct, 21:34 UTC16%
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20 Oct, 18:24 UTC15%
20 Oct, 16:27 UTC16%
20 Oct, 15:51 UTC17%
20 Oct, 14:54 UTC17%
20 Oct, 14:01 UTC16%
20 Oct, 13:37 UTC18%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Harry Kane is ranked second in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or, as determined by France Football or UEFA. If multiple players tie for second place, the winner is decided alphabetically by name. Readers often mistake the ceremony date of October 26, 2026, for the final deadline; the actual cutoff is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 28%
  • No 72%

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