Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 54% |
| 6 Nov, 05:18 UTC | 53% |
| 6 Nov, 04:34 UTC | 54% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 53% |
| 5 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 54% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. This agreement must be officially announced by both governments or confirmed by credible reporting as a general pause in the conflict. Readers often mistake unilateral pauses, informal understandings, or agreements limited to specific locations for a valid ceasefire.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 54%
- No 47%
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