Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$433k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 09:39 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Meta owns the model with the highest rank on the specified arena.ai leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if any other company holds that top spot or if the source becomes permanently unavailable. Readers often mistake the resolution time for the end of the day rather than the specific 12:00 PM ET deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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