Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?
Implied probability 99%+16
24-hour volume$31k
Total volume$59k
Liquidity$50k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 88% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Oct, 13:35 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 88% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 80% |
| 9 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 80% |
| 9 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 82% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 79% |
| 8 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 73% |
| 8 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 75% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 76% |
| 8 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 79% |
| 8 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 79% |
| 8 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 80% |
| 8 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 86% |
| 8 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 05:52 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 88% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 22:05 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 85% |
| 7 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 92% |
| 6 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 53% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin engage in any verbal interaction by phone or video call before October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such conversation occurs within that window or if the timing cannot be confirmed by credible media reporting. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date of the reported event rather than the cutoff for verifying the interaction.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%
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