Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
Implied probability 10%+1
24-hour volume$1
Total volume$48k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 05:02 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 12% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces physically enter any part of Saudi Arabia by 11:59 PM ET on October 31. Bombardment, naval presence, or diplomatic visits do not count as entry. Readers often mistake threats or claims for actual ground presence.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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