Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
The market favoured Leeds United FC at 58% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$280k
Total volume$284k
Liquidity$52k
Resolved10 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 10 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 41% |
| 10 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 42% |
| 10 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 43% |
| 10 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 11:01 UTC | 43% |
| 9 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 44% |
| 9 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 43% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 43% |
| 7 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 46% |
What counts
Arsenal FC wins if they beat Leeds United by two goals or more in the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Leeds United FC wins if Arsenal does not achieve that margin of victory. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but the market relies on the official final score from premierleague.com, not live updates or other sports sites.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Arsenal FC 0%
- Leeds United FC 100%
View this market on Polymarket →