Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$198k
Total volume$534k
Liquidity$61k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs only if Republicans win Maine and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. The No outcome applies to all other combinations of wins and losses among these seven states. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but the market relies on consensus from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, not just any single news outlet.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%