Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
The market favoured Yes at 80% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −28 points at 22:20 UTC, after France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: ¿En qué se distancian Lula y Flávio Bolsonaro de cara al balotaje en Brasil? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 72% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 77% |
| 25 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 78% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 78% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 81% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 82% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 82% |
| 25 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 82% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 80% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 80% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 80% |
| 21 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 80% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any second round. The No outcome applies if he does not win. Readers often mistake the June 30, 2027 deadline for the resolution time rather than a cutoff for ambiguity, or they rely on unofficial reports instead of the official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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