Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Implied probability 88%+16
24-hour volume$382k
Total volume$1.9M
Liquidity$65k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, including any required run-offs. It resolves to No if she loses that race. Readers often mistake the deadline for the official certification date instead of the date when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the winner.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 88%
- No 12%