Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$898
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$327
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 87% |
| 1 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 01:59 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 00:56 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 00:21 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 88% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 88% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 88% |
| 31 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 89% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 90% |
| 31 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 93% |
| 31 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 10:45 UTC | 92% |
| 31 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 92% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 93% |
| 31 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 91% |
| 30 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 88% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike against a listed Arab country between now and October 31, 2026. The action must be explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory, regardless of whether the munitions are intercepted.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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