Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?
Implied probability 54%−3
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$20k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 55% |
| 26 Oct, 11:16 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 62% |
| 26 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Oct, 06:34 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 79% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 80% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 82% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 79% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 63% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Oct, 06:41 UTC | 59% |
| 25 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 63% |
| 24 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 63% |
| 24 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 62% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 60% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 61% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 58% |
| 24 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 52% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 53% |
| 23 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 53% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 53% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 57% |
| 23 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 57% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 59% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 59% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 49% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 44% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 55% |
| 23 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 54% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 57% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 57% |
| 22 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 00:45 UTC | 56% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 56% |
| 21 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 58% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 57% |
| 21 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 57% |
| 21 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 57% |
| 21 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 58% |
| 21 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 57% |
| 21 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 59% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 67% |
| 21 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 70% |
| 21 Oct, 11:01 UTC | 74% |
| 21 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 78% |
| 21 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 76% |
| 21 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 72% |
| 21 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 59% |
| 21 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 57% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if at least one full calendar day passes in Paris without any curfew being in effect between the market's creation date and October 31, inclusive. A curfew counts only if it is an official government order restricting public movement for the general population within Paris city limits.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 54%
- No 47%
Trade this market on Polymarket →