Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?
The market favoured Yes at 79% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$1.4M
Total volume$1.4M
Liquidity$914k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 80% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 81% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 79% |
| 19 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 78% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Real Madrid wins the match scheduled for October 21, 2026, and "No" otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final full-time score or extra time results as the deciding factor.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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