Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$14
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$45k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 03:33 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 08:16 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 13:07 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 10:37 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 08:08 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait and establish control over any part of its territory by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Mere presence or short-term operations lasting less than 48 hours do not count, and the outcome depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than single statements.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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