Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?
Implied probability 31%−6
24-hour volume$46k
Total volume$114k
Liquidity$38k
Resolves1 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 7 Nov, 06:53 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Nov, 06:25 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 05:16 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Nov, 02:02 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Nov, 01:21 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 22:21 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 20:46 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 33% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 15:51 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 13:27 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 12:58 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 09:51 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 09:23 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 08:55 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 08:13 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 37% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel announces its ground forces have left all Lebanese territory by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a future plan does not count as a withdrawal. Readers often mistake the Shebaa Farms area for Lebanese land that must be vacated, but it counts as Israeli territory for this resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 70%
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