Sri Lanka Tour of England ODIs: England vs Sri Lanka
The market favoured England at 88% a day out, but Sri Lanka won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$314k
Total volume$241
Liquidity$5k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 00:27 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 19:38 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 18:24 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 88% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 88% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 93% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 91% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 72% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Sept, 13:32 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 81% |
| 24 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 82% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 10:48 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 10:19 UTC | 86% |
| 24 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 87% |
| 23 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 88% |
| 23 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 88% |
| 23 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 88% |
| 22 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 85% |
What counts
England wins if they take more runs than Sri Lanka in their scheduled One Day International match. Sri Lanka wins if they score more runs than England or if the game ends tied with no tiebreaker used. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which occurs two hours after the match concludes rather than immediately when play stops.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- England 0%
- Sri Lanka 100%
View this market on Polymarket →