Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The outcome is Yes if Mistral owns the model with the highest rank at that time, and No otherwise. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day or overlook that models marked “AutoEval” are excluded from the ranking.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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