Will Türkiye win on 2026-10-05?
The market favoured No at 88% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$448k
Total volume$464k
Liquidity$318k
Resolved5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 13% |
| 5 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 14% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Türkiye wins the match scheduled for October 5, 2026, based solely on the result within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If the game is canceled with no make-up date, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the final score including extra time or penalties as the deciding factor, but only the regulation time result counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →