Colts vs. Commanders
The market favoured Colts at 67% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$4.1M
Total volume$33k
Liquidity$74k
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 11:36 UTC | 67% |
| 4 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 64% |
What counts
The Colts outcome resolves if they win the scheduled NFL game on October 4. The Commanders outcome resolves if they win that same game. Readers often mistake the resolution source, but the result depends solely on the official game winner, not betting lines or predictions.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Colts 100%
- Commanders 0%
View this market on Polymarket →