Will Norway win on 2026-09-27?
The market favoured No at 62% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$1.2M
Total volume$1.3M
Liquidity$653k
Resolved27 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 18:44 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 17:45 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 15:52 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 03:33 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 20:04 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Sept, 11:20 UTC | 36% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Norway wins the match within the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if the game is canceled entirely or if Norway does not win. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but the official statistics from the governing body are the primary standard for resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →