Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 10:45 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 22:09 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 21:55 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 20:44 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 15:34 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 01:10 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 98% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
Apple must publicly announce and launch a category of products it has never sold before by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to Yes. Updates or iterations of existing lines like iPhones or Macs do not count as new product lines. Readers often mistake the linked story's October date as the deadline, but the actual cutoff is the end of 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%
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