Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?

What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if Israel launches drones, missiles, or air strikes that hit the ground territory of at least 11 different countries during 2026. The No outcome applies if these strikes affect fewer than 11 distinct nations within that same timeframe. Readers often mistake intercepted missiles or strikes on Israeli-controlled territories like the West Bank as counting toward the total.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.