UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)
The market favoured Brendan Allen at 53% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$605k
Total volume$58
Liquidity$2k
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 89% |
| 11 Oct, 02:24 UTC | 56% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 51% |
| 10 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 52% |
| 10 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 53% |
What counts
Brendan Allen wins if he is officially declared the winner of the fight. Christian Leroy Duncan wins if he is officially declared the winner. Readers often mistake the October 24 postponement deadline for the resolution date, but the market resolves based on the official UFC result regardless of when it occurs.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Brendan Allen 100%
- Christian Leroy Duncan 0%
View this market on Polymarket →