UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)
The market favoured Renato Moicano at 54% a day out, but Tom Nolan won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$778k
Total volume$802k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 55% |
| 31 Oct, 21:39 UTC | 54% |
| 31 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 53% |
| 31 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 52% |
What counts
The market resolves to Renato Moicano if he is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tom Nolan. It resolves to Tom Nolan if he is officially declared the winner. Readers often mistake the November 14, 2026 postponement deadline for the resolution date instead of the source of truth being the official UFC declaration.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Renato Moicano 0%
- Tom Nolan 100%
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